Arwell

Model-independent Way to Determine the Hubble Constant and the Curvature

from the Phase Shift of Gravitational Waves with DECIGO

韦境量

2026.1.7

paper

Table of contents

Introduction

Hubble Tension

CMB v.s. Supernova

ppt1

The spatial curvature of the Universe

pure CMB data close Universe $\Omega_k=-0.044^{+0.018}_{-0.015}$
combination of Planck lensing data and low redshift baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) flat Universe $\Omega_k=0.0007\pm0.0019$

Methodology

Traditional Method

  • model
  • $\Lambda$CDM

  • Friedman equation
  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

Traditional Method

  • model
  • Friedman equation
  • $$ E(z)\equiv\left(\frac{H(z)}{H_0}\right)^2=\Omega_{m}(1+z)^3+\Omega_{k}(1+z)^2+\Omega_{\Lambda} $$

  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

Traditional Method

  • model
  • Friedman equation
  • $$ E(z)\equiv\left(\frac{H(z)}{H_0}\right)^2=\Omega_{m}(1+z)^3+\Omega_{k}(1+z)^2+\Omega_{\Lambda} $$

  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • $$ D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})=\left\{\begin{array}{ll} \displaystyle\frac{D_H}{(1+z)\sqrt{|\Omega_k}|}\sinh^{-1}\left(\sqrt{|\Omega_k|}\int_0^z\frac{\mathrm{d}z'}{E(z')^{1/2}}\right) & \text{for}\ \Omega_k>0 \\ \displaystyle\frac{D_H}{(1+z)}\int\frac{\mathrm{d}z'}{E(z')^{1/2}} & \text{for}\ \Omega_k=0 \\ \displaystyle\frac{D_H}{(1+z)\sqrt{|\Omega_k}|}\sin^{-1}\left(\sqrt{|\Omega_k|}\int_0^z\frac{\mathrm{d}z'}{E(z')^{1/2}}\right) & \text{for}\ \Omega_k<0 \\ \end{array}\right. $$ here $\boldsymbol{p}=(\Omega_m,\Omega_k,\Omega_\Lambda)$

  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

Traditional Method

  • model
  • Friedman equation
  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

This work

  • gravitational wave (GW)'s phase shift
  • acceleration parameter $X(z)$($H(z)$)
  • using artificial neural network (ANN) to get function ($z\rightarrow X(z)$)
  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

This work

  • gravitational wave (GW)'s phase shift
  • acceleration parameter $X(z)$($H(z)$)
  • $$ X(z)\equiv\frac{H_0}{2}\left(1-\frac{H(z)}{(1+z)H_0}\right) $$

  • using artificial neural network (ANN) to get function ($z\rightarrow X(z)$)
  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

This work

  • gravitational wave (GW)'s phase shift
  • acceleration parameter $X(z)$($H(z)$)
  • $$ X(z)\equiv\frac{H_0}{2}\left(1-\frac{H(z)}{(1+z)H_0}\right) $$

  • using artificial neural network (ANN) to get function ($z\rightarrow X(z)$)
  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • $$ D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})=\left\{\begin{array}{ll} \displaystyle\frac{D_H}{(1+z)\sqrt{|\Omega_k}|}\sinh^{-1}\left(\sqrt{|\Omega_k|}\frac{H_0}{1+z}\int_0^z\frac{\mathrm{d}z'}{H_0-2X(z')}\right) & \text{for}\ \Omega_k>0 \\ \displaystyle\frac{c}{(1+z)^2}\int\frac{\mathrm{d}z'}{H_0-2X(z')} & \text{for}\ \Omega_k=0 \\ \displaystyle\frac{D_H}{(1+z)\sqrt{|\Omega_k}|}\sin^{-1}\left(\sqrt{|\Omega_k|}\frac{H_0}{1+z}\int_0^z\frac{\mathrm{d}z'}{H_0-2X(z')}\right) & \text{for}\ \Omega_k>0 \\ \end{array}\right. $$ here $\boldsymbol{p}=(H_0,\Omega_k)$

  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

This work

  • gravitational wave (GW)'s phase shift
  • acceleration parameter $X(z)$($H(z)$)
  • using artificial neural network (ANN) to get function ($z\rightarrow X(z)$)
  • theoretical angular diameter distance $D_A^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
  • get observed distance $D_A^{\text{obs}}(z)$
  • obtain cosmological parameters $\boldsymbol{p}$ by chi-square-minimized (Markov Chain Monte Carlo method)

GW $\rightarrow$ $D_{A}^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$

The gravitational waveform without cosmic acceleration reads

$$ \tilde{h}(f)=\frac{\sqrt{3}}{2}\mathcal{A}f^{-7/6}e^{i\Psi(f)}\left[\frac{5}{4}A_{\text{pol},\alpha}(t(f))\right]e^{-i(\varphi_{\text{pol},\alpha}+\varphi_D)} $$

Gravitational waveform including the effects of the cosmic acceleration reads

$$ \tilde{h}(f)_{\text{acc}}=\tilde{h}(f)e^{i\Psi_{\text{acc}}(f)} $$

where $$ \Psi_{\text{acc}}(f)=-\Psi_N(f)\frac{25}{768}X(z)\mathcal{M}_z x^{-4} $$ The acceleration parameter $X(z)$ is defined as

$$ X(z)\equiv\frac{H_0}{2}\left(1-\frac{H(z)}{(1+z)H_0}\right) $$

Gravitational waveform including the effects of the cosmic acceleration reads

$$ \tilde{h}(f)_{\text{acc}}=\tilde{h}(f)e^{i\Psi_{\text{acc}}(f)} $$

where $$ \Psi_{\text{acc}}(f)=-\Psi_N(f)\frac{25}{768}X(z)\mathcal{M}_z x^{-4} $$ The acceleration parameter $X(z)$ is defined as

$$ X(z)\equiv\frac{H_0}{2}\left(1-\frac{H(z)}{(1+z)H_0}\right) $$

$$ \Rightarrow E(z)^{1/2}=\frac{H(z)}{H_0}=(H_0-2X(z))(1+z) $$

Gravitational waveform including the effects of the cosmic acceleration reads

$$ \tilde{h}(f)_{\text{acc}}=\tilde{h}(f)e^{i\Psi_{\text{acc}}(f)} $$

The waveform $\tilde{h}(f)_{\text{acc}}$ depends on 11 parameters: $$ \theta^i=(\ln\mathcal{M}_z,\ln\eta,\beta,t_c,\phi_c,\bar{\theta}_S,\bar{\phi}_S,\bar{\theta}_L,\bar{\phi}_L,D_L,X) $$

Simulate data

set $m_1=m_2=1.4M_\odot$ and take $t_c=\phi_c=\beta=0$ for each fiducial redshift $z$, randomly generate $10^4$ sets of $(\bar{\theta}_S,\bar{\phi}_S,\bar{\theta}_L,\bar{\phi}_L)$

using a flat $\Lambda$CDM model with the cosmological parameters derived by Planck 2018 measurements to generate datas

divide sample into 50 bins, train the ANN on the simulated $X(z)$ data and predicte the $X(z)$ at other redshifts.

ANN: input redshift $z$, output corresponding cosmic acceleration parameter $X(z)$ and its respective uncertainty $\sigma_X$ at that redshift.

Simulate data

ANN: input redshift $z$, output corresponding cosmic acceleration parameter $X(z)$ and its respective uncertainty $\sigma_X$ at that redshift.

fig1

QSOs $\rightarrow$ $D_{A}^{\text{obs}}(z)$

The characteristic angular size of a distant radio quasar is $$ \theta=\frac{2\sqrt{-\ln\Gamma\ln 2}}{\pi B} $$ $B$: the interferometer baseline
$\Gamma=S_c/S_t$: the ratio between the total and correlated flux densities The angular size of the compact structure in radio QSOs is

$$ \theta(z)=\frac{l_m}{D_A(z;\boldsymbol{p})} $$

$l_m$: the linear size scaling factor describing the apparent distribution of radio brightness within the core

$$ \theta(z)=\frac{l_m}{D_A(z;\boldsymbol{p})} $$

Taking $l_m=11.03\pm0.25\text{pc}$ and following the redshift distribution of QSOs from Palanque-Delabrouille et al.(2016)(https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201527392e),
simulate $1000$ "angular size-redshift" data, assume the "measured" angular sizes follow a Gaussian distribution $\theta_{\text{means}}=N(\theta_\text{fid},\sigma_\theta)$, $\theta_{\text{fid}}$ is obtained from equation above under same model in GW.

Taking $l_m=11.03\pm0.25\text{pc}$ and following the redshift distribution of QSOs from Palanque-Delabrouille et al.(2016)(https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201527392e),
simulate $1000$ "angular size-redshift" data, assume the "measured" angular sizes follow a Gaussian distribution $\theta_{\text{means}}=N(\theta_\text{fid},\sigma_\theta)$, $\theta_{\text{fid}}$ is obtained from equation above under same model in GW.

fig2

Results

1. The best-fit values of $H_0$ and $\Omega_k$

using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to minimize the $\chi^2$ objective function: $$ \chi^2=\sum_{i=1}^{1000} \frac{[D_{A,i}^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})-D_{A,i}^{\text{obs}}(z)]^2}{\sigma_{D_{A,i}^{\text{th}}}^2+\sigma_{D_{A,i}^{\text{obs}}}^2} $$

here GW $\rightarrow$ $X(z)$ $\rightarrow$ $D_{A,i}^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$
QSOs $\rightarrow$ $D_{A,i}^{\text{obs}}(z)$

1. The best-fit values of $H_0$ and $\Omega_k$

using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to minimize the $\chi^2$ objective function: $$ \chi^2=\sum_{i=1}^{1000} \frac{[D_{A,i}^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})-D_{A,i}^{\text{obs}}(z)]^2}{\sigma_{D_{A,i}^{\text{th}}}^2+\sigma_{D_{A,i}^{\text{obs}}}^2} $$

ppt2

1. The best-fit values of $H_0$ and $\Omega_k$

$$ H_0=67.19_{-0.74}^{+0.77}\ \text{km}\ \text{s}^{-1}\ \text{Mpc}^{-1},\quad \Omega_k=0.022_{-0.046}^{+0.051} $$ at $68.3\%$ confidence level.

fig3

1. The best-fit values of $H_0$ and $\Omega_k$

$$ H_0=67.19_{-0.74}^{+0.77}\ \text{km}\ \text{s}^{-1}\ \text{Mpc}^{-1},\quad \Omega_k=0.022_{-0.046}^{+0.051} $$ at $68.3\%$ confidence level.

compare to used model $H_0=67.4\ \text{km}\ \text{s}^{-1}\ \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ and $\Omega_k=0$

2. The uncertainties of the best-fit parameters as a function of QSO sample size $N$

fig4 fig5

3. The uncertainties related to GW signals and QSOs

fig6

Conclusion

Conclusion

1. a cosmological model-independent method to determine the Hubble constant and curvature parameter simultaneously based on GW from DECIGO and QSOs from VLBI

DECIGO $\rightarrow$ GW $\rightarrow$ phase shift $\rightarrow$ $H(z)$ $\rightarrow$ $D_{A,i}^{\text{th}}(z;\boldsymbol{p})$

VLBI $\rightarrow$ QSOs $\rightarrow$ "angular size-distance" $\rightarrow$ $D_{A,i}^{\text{obs}}(z)$

2. assume a fiducial cosmology to simulate GW and QSOs datas:

$N=1000$ QSOs $\rightarrow$ $\sigma_{H_0}=0.75\ \text{km}\ \text{s}^{-1}\ \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ and $\sigma_{\Omega_k}=0.048$ achieve $1\%$ precision

the precision of $H_0$ with a fixed prior on $\Omega_k$ can reach $0.5\%$

the performance of the method on QSO samples of different sizes (from $N=50$ to $N=1000$): not a simple $1/\sqrt{N}$ but saturate at $N=500$ (unsolved)

3. potential ways to improve results:

higher angular resolution and lower statistical and systematic uncertainty from QSOs from VLBI

datas from other astronomical probes such SNe Ia and BAOs

Thanks